weather has been upgraded with greater resolution that extends further out in time.

Global Forecast System model: The primary model for U.S.

The National Weather Service is able to measure and predict the oceans and atmosphere by also leveraging strong relationships with other domestic agencies and the international community.Īmong the models operated by the National Weather Service that have undergone significant improvements: Weather prediction is truly a community effort. JPSS, set to launch in 2017, will be critical for weather prediction beyond 48 hours and increase the consistency and accuracy of forecasts three to seven days in advance of a severe weather event. When launched, beginning in 2016, GOES-R will provide satellite images every 30 seconds of major storms and offer significantly improved data collection capabilities. NOAA is working to launch advanced geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites, called GOES-R and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), respectively. NOAA operates two types of satellites - geostationary and polar-orbiting - that continuously provide real-time data and imagery, which are fed into NOAA's weather prediction models. Orbiting Earth is a constellation of satellites that track storms and can measure conditions such as temperature, moisture and wind. But there are gaps between these specific points - gaps that are filled by satellites. NOAA’s aircraft also now carry tail Doppler radar that gives an even more detailed look inside the complex structure of these dangerous storms.Įach of the data points are essential for painting the picture forecasters need.

Air Force fly special hurricane hunter planes into and around storms to measure intensity and the surrounding wind patterns that steer them. To best study tropical storms and hurricanes, crews from NOAA and the U.S. And, the NWS has partnered with some commercial airlines to equip aircraft with sensors to take observations during takeoff, in flight and through landing. In the air, weather balloons are launched daily across the country to measure conditions upwards of 115,000 feet.And, bobbing in strategic locations in the Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean are DART ( Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis) buoys - with a sensor extending to the ocean floor that alerts forecasters to an undersea earthquake and the threat of a tsunami. On the water, buoys measure a range of conditions such as sea surface temperatures and wave heights - crucial data for routine marine forecasts and for measuring powerful nor’easters and hurricanes.There is also the network of more than 120 Doppler radars - now enhanced with Dual Polarization Technology - that scan the skies for precipitation type and intensity which aids the forecasts of floods and the transition of precipitation (e.g., rain changing to heavy snow). On land, there is the network of Automated Surface Observing Systems that measures current weather, visibility, precipitation and other conditions at airports.Portion of the weather data provided by satellites, which feed computer models Still, scientists are diligently working to address remaining forecast challenges, such as improving forecasts of rapidly strengthening or weakening hurricanes and extending the lead time for tornado and flood warnings. Tornadoes cloaked by the darkness of night or embedded within heavy rain are now revealed by National Weather Service Doppler radar and by its ability to tell the difference between precipitation and debris that’s lofted in the air by a funnel that has reached the ground.Įvery advancement in weather forecasting has led to safer travel on roads, in the air, at sea businesses that can improve safety, productivity, profit emergency managers that direct residents away from harm a nation that is more ready, responsive and resilient to natural disasters. Today, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is able to issue five-day forecasts for hurricanes such as Katrina and Sandy thanks to better observations, atmospheric computer modeling and the use of satellites that are a forecaster’s “eye in the sky.”

Hurricanes once surprised people, such as the Hurricane of 1938 that hit Long Island, New York, with no warning. As the quantity and quality of observations have improved, as computer modeling has become more detailed, as supercomputing has become more powerful, and as researchers study the mysteries of our weather and climate - so, too, have forecasts improved and will continue to improve.

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